Hello everyone, I'm Brad Rousseau, I just completed my Honours B.Sc in Atmospheric Science and obtained my certificate in Meteorology. I have a passion for weather in all seasons but have a profound appreciation for severe convective weather and tornadoes. I have a fair amount of experience when it comes to forecasting by practising throughout my university career, and chasing in SW'rn Ontario. May 2010 was my first chase in the Alley with veterans Dave Lewison, Mark Robinson, and Scott McPartland, where I was able to successfully contribute in intercepting 5 tornadoes. This blog is will be dedicated mostly to my weather discussions for Ontario as well as for the Plains, but will also be used to discuss the 2011 chase trip down in the Alley.

That being said, here goes my first ever weather discussion. Thursday evening (April 14, 2011) shows a strong threat of tornadoes in through Oklahoma and Kansas. The progression of the upper level trough along with strong diffluence combined with left exit region of the 250mb jet will sit through east central, northeast Oklahoma and up in through east central Kansas. This will make for a interesting setup. As the surface low progresses NNE, it begins to occlude with a secondary low developing at around 00Z Friday, April 15. This area is where I anticipate the action to be in the vicinity of the triple point. As the parent low progresses NNE storms should fire in through S central Kansas but the environment is still pretty capped; the better conditions still remain in though NE Oklahoma. Although wind profiles appear to be better in through east Kansas the combination of low level shear, greater CAPE values, higher dew points, and a 35-40 kt 850 LLJ still, in my opinion, put Tulsa, Oklahoma in the region of interest. Environment should remain favourable for strong isolated cells to continue into the night in through Arkansas as well.