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May 19, 2011 Storm Potential

Currently en toute to Pratt, Kansas. Looks like all has fallen into place with what was mentioned in the discussion below, the only difference now is it appears as though the warm front may stall a little further south than what was forecasted. The NAM looks to push it the warm front way to the N but that doesn't seem to reality. Both the RUC and HRRR have the front staling between Wichita and Salina kansas, then surging northward to around Hays Kansas. Pratt falls right in the middle of the warm sector and should see some initiation in the region off the dry line. Low level shear, moisture, and CAPE will all be sufficient for supercells with large hail and possibility of tornadoes.

 

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