The above shows my forecast analysis for this afternoon showing the scenario for Saskatchewan. A potent upper trough currently rounding the Rockies along the Oregon/Idaho border region will eject into southeastern AB by this afternoon providing strong large scale ascent and rapid intensification of the surface low forecast to be located around the Mose Jaw area by 6 pm local time. From this location a triple point will be located as analyzed above and will be the focus point for maximum forcing for later this afternoon (green line indicates the 850 low level jet orientation). Current convection in AB will work its way into western SK through today which will bring a risk heavy downpours, hail and strong winds. Initiation looks little uncertain at the moment as models are struggling with current convection. Thus the area outlined in yellow is a general risk area where supercells are possible with large hail and strong winds. Shear vectors along the occlusion are perpendicular to the forcing thus leading to isolated rotating updrafts. Thus the NW portion of the areas outlined in yellow proves to have a substantial tornado threat for today, this area is approximately between Swift Current and Saskatoon. The area outlines in red and right at the tri[ple point (which isnt in the red area but should be) is where the stronger threat for tornadoes are for today but has a minimal window for it. The cold front will rapidly overtake the dryline and undercut most convection causing the 850 low level winds to veer around to a more westerly direction cutting down and the shear needed. However the area right near just north of the triple point will see an extend period of southeasterly low level winds and will be an environment conducive to longer lived supercells and enhanced risk of tornadoes. Looks like convection northwest of Mose Jaw will be underway by around 2-3 pm time frame and in southeatern SK by the 5-7 pm time frame and this is spported by tge RAP/HRRR/NAM and GEM with some differences in coverage and extent.