A quick analysis this afternoon is showing the possibility of a few severe storms this afternoon/evening for extreme southeaster MB, particularly the area outlines by the TCH from ON to Winnipeg, south from Winnipeg along Hwy 75, and the US border over to Lake of The Woods.

A cold front/occluded front is slowly progressing eastward through the southern portion of the province this afternoon which will act as the primary trigger for surface based convection. Along with this front is a strong 250 mb jet streak which is in the 90-100 kt range and 500 mb vort max forecast to reach the southern tip of Lake Manitoba late this afternoon/evening (first image below), which will aid in overall ascent ahead of the front. Furthermore, CAPE values are forecast to reach the 750-1000 J/Kg range, in combination with 35-40 kt deep layer shear, the environment for extreme southeastern MB may become conducive to a few severe storms and even a supercell is possible given shear profiles. Main threats will be wind, rain, and moderate hail. A tornado threat will be minimal as any convection will likely initiate too late to really feed off the daytime heating. The second map shows forecast analysis and the circled region is the main risk area where I think strongest storms will be possible late this afternoon and evening.