Same low that brought severe storms to the Edmonton and south eastern portion of Alberta will push into Saskatchewan today. Will begin by looking at water vapour image from this morning which continued to show the broad upper low currently centered on the WA/OR borders. There is a little shortwave trough ejecting out of the base of this broad low shown in the circled area in the first image below. This will ride along the axis of strong 500 mb winds and is forecast to enter the southwestern part of Saskatchewan this afternoon as indicated by the second image. This shortwave in combination with strong upper level divergence and diffluence within the warm sector of the low will aid in overall ascent and destabilization of the arimass.

At the surface there is currently a broad area of low pressure along the AB/SK borders south of Lloyminster that is forecast to become more organized and strengthen some in the area between Kindersley and North Battleford, SK. From this low a warm front is forecast to extend east through Saskatoon, a cold front is forecast to extend south toward Swift Current and down into the U.S., and a occluded front/stationary front pushing back into AB. The ongoing convection near Swift Current may spit out an outflow boundary back to the south later today, thus this will be something to watch for. The focus for surface based convection will be along both the cold and warm fronts and area in between the two along and just north of the upper shortwave trough mentioned above. Profiles within the warm sector are highly veered with large cycle shaped forecast hodographs along with bulk shear values forecast to reach the 35-45 kt range. Forecast SBCAPE values are forecast to be within the 1000-1500 J/KG range by the GEM and NAM however the RAP is currently favoring the 500-1000 J/KG range, which seems to be the more reasonable number at the moment. But this will greatly depend on the amount of clearing through today. All factors combined, looks like storms could begin to fire as early as 21 UTC (2:00 pm local time), where initial modes will be a little messy at first, but as storms push ENE and get into better inflow associated with the strengthening 850 LLJ, I would expect supercells to develop. The area outlined in purple indicates general risk with the pink outline showing where I believe the better environment is for supercells and even a tornado risk. This are includes Saskatoon, Swift Current, Moose Jaw, and Regina, as well as areas along the AB/SK border from Lloydminster to Hwy 7. One thing to note is that some better convective models are not breaking much out in the way of organized convection, which is cause to believe there is a bust potential with this system. Things will have to be monitored through the day to see how things evolve, particularly if any outflow boundaries produce which could enhance the threat within the warm sector with any storm interaction. Will have updates on Twitter when possible.