We currently have a pretty deep trough bringing some severe storms to the central portions of Alberta, is this same system that forecast to push into Saskatchewan tomorrow which will bring another severe weather risk to the province. Starting at the upper levels we have a relatively strong 500 mb low that will be ejecting into northern AB with a strong wind max ejecting around the base of the low into SK. Along with that there is a 120-135 kt jet core that will also be ejecting into the southern to central portions of SK. There is some discrepancy among models as to where the exact positioning of these upper features will be located but in the grand scheme of things that should not affect the overall setup. There will still be ample upper level divergence, but there is some agreement on where the main diffluent region will be in eastern SK which will help things along.

Moving down to 850 mb we can see there will be a relatively strong 850 mb LLJ which is forecast to strengthen through the evening and overnight hours which will help with overall low level shear values. At the moment the 12Z data indicates sfc to 850 mb shear values to be somewhere within the 20-40 kt range which is suitable for good low level rotation along with 30-50 kt of sfc-500 mb shear. Based on the upper level winds there is no shortage of shear.

At the surface there is currently a cold front tracking across AB which will begin to push its way through N'rn SK along with a dryline in the southern portion through tomorrow. It is this dryline that will be the main focus for storms tomorrow afternoon. The stronger 500 mb flow will alow for the dryline to surge this far west. Ahead of the cold front CAPE values are forecast to reach extreme values between 3000-4000 J/kg with the GEM even going as high as ~4400J/kg in the Regina region. But examining forecast soundings do reveal on problem for any storms that fire (see sounding above), and that is a very large layer of dry air aloft and a titanium CAP. Looking at the CAP forecast field we can see a weakness within the CAP right along and near the dryline but ahead of it within the real good air the CAP is extremely strong. All factors considered I still think there is the risk for some storms but they are likely going to be extreme isolated and relatively short lived. Given that air aloft is so dry once the ambient moisture is used my primary storms, they will likely choke off and die. Thus I believe there will be the risk of some very isolated supercells with initiation between 2-4 pm CST near Regina and a few storms along the cold front in NW'rn SK some could be severe. But feel as though LCL heights will limit the tornado threat even with the amount of streamwise vorticity within forecast soundings. Current convective models do indicate though the areas from Mellville northward will be more favourable for longer lasting storms with more surface based convection. Some major cities in the pink region are Regina, Moose Jaw, Weyburn, Estevan, and Yorkton.

And if you think I'm crazy saying there is a dryline there here is NAM 30mb mean due points and sfc streamlines: