Certainly an active afternoon weather wise is in store for SK. Water vapor imagery this morning is showing the upper low and associated short wave along with a 500 mb 60-70 kt jet ejecting out of the Rocking into AB which will bring an enhanced risk of severe weather for SK. Along with the 500 mb flow is a jet core at 250 mb is forecast to develop in the southwestern portion of SK this afternoon and being to nose into the warm sector which will really act to enhance upper level divergence.

At 850 mb there will substantial southerly low level winds with the main 30-40 kt LLJ axis to the immediate east of the cold front which will gradually strengthen to a 50-60 kt LLJ through the evening for the eastern part of the province. These low level winds will contribute to ample low level shear with Sfc-850 mb bulk shear ranging from 20-40 kt and Sfc-500 mb bulk shear values of 50-70 kt. This is resulting in extremely veered hodographs within a deep layer and large amounts of streamwise vorticity within inflow winds. Parameters within this range will most certainly yield strong rotating updrafts and isolated supercells with a tornado risk. I would even go as far to say that there is a risk of a couple long tracked and possibly violent tornadoes.

At the surface there is a low currently sitting in eastern AB near the Oyen region with a warm front pushing NNE’wrd into SK and cold front pushing across south central AB, this low is forecast to track NE’wrd and end up near the Prince Albert region this afternoon. Within the warm sector of due points are forecast to range from 18^oC-22^oC which is on the extreme end and will be plenty to give LCL height within the 500-1000 meter range, but still think with shear and shear vector orientation along with ample upper level divergence supercell modes will likely remain classic in nature. CAP is expected to hold on until around 20 UTC (1:00 pm CST), where forecast soundings begin to show CAP erosion and CAP gone by 21-22 UTC (2-3 pm CST). Thus I believe initiation could be as early as 1:00 pm CST along and just west of Hwy 2 from Prince Albert – Moose jaw – US border and track ENE with storm motion about 20-40 km/h. With this type of environemt could see supercells mature within 30-40 min of initiation thus yielding a tornado threat through the afternoon for central SK and late afternoon/evening for eastern SK. All factors considered the area to the east of Hwy 2 will see the risk of isolated supercells and tornadoes with the highest risk between the TCH and Yellow Head Hwy.

Here is a slightly larger version of the map above withou the text just so its a little more clear: