Yesterdays chase could not have gone any better. We picked Pratt Kansas as our target, on a day where parameters were so marginal the forecast had to be perfect and we nailed it. With the vorticity maximum ejected around the base of the trough, right entrance of the 250mb jet and the left exit of the 500 mb jet sitting over the target, this allowed for a weak surface cyclone to develop. For a brief period the winds in the vicinity of Pratt were backed out of the southeast and in behind the dry line around dodge city the winds were veered out of the northwest making for an area of strong convergence just to the east of Pratt. Multiple discrete storms fired off this area with weak rotating updrafts. No tornadoes were able to form due to the absence of sufficient shear, but there was enough to get some hail, rotation, and some incredible structure. The last storm of the day took on all characteristics of a supercell and was barely moving almost due east. We were able to get on it as the sun began to set which made for some of the best structure and lighting.

Currently sitting in Pratt, Kansas. Things look really promising, debating going north to follow the warm front where shear is better but Pratt is still great position for now

Currently en toute to Pratt, Kansas. Looks like all has fallen into place with what was mentioned in the discussion below, the only difference now is it appears as though the warm front may stall a little further south than what was forecasted. The NAM looks to push it the warm front way to the N but that doesn't seem to reality. Both the RUC and HRRR have the front staling between Wichita and Salina kansas, then surging northward to around Hays Kansas. Pratt falls right in the middle of the warm sector and should see some initiation in the region off the dry line. Low level shear, moisture, and CAPE will all be sufficient for supercells with large hail and possibility of tornadoes.

With the return of some better upper level flow at 250 mb with about a 70-90 kt jet and and 60-70 kt flow at 500 mb, storm potential should be increased as apposed to yesterday. Again it is still a little further to the west than ideal, but it much better than what May 18 had. The upper level low at 500 mb alos looks to eject a strong vorticity lobe out into west Kansas which should help things get organized also.

At the surface the low is looking to be sitting in the western portions of Kansas with the warm front sitting E - W just south of the I-70. In behind the front dew points look to be into the mid - high 60's. The dry line also looks to surge forward out of west Texas and the intersection of the warm front dry line should be the area of interest once again.

As the 850 low level jet begins to kick in at about 21Z in combination with sufficient dew points and forcing, the low level shear should be able to support supercells along the dry line. Surface based CAPE in the range of 2000 - 2500 J/kg is sufficient to provide the needed energy for thunderstorm development, with the CAP eroding by around 21Z. Soundings and hodogrpahs look to support this scenario and indicate that very large hail will also be a threat for tomorrow.

Sitting in Kingfisher, OK just south along the warm front waitting for the dry line to surge forward initiating thunderstorms.