After two days of driving finally made it out to our destination here in west Kansas...well sort of...Was hoping to stay in Dodge City, KS but all the hotels in the area were booked solid so we had to drive about 45 minutes west to Garden City. This actually worked out for the better because now were a little closer to our area of interest for tomorrow and actually pretty much in it.

Things for tomorrow look very marginal and is really dependant on how much Gulf moisture can start to return overnight tonight and in through tomorrow. But aloft conditions are slightly more favourable but with a little luck may be able to produce something to look at. Starting aloft here we have the NAM 250 mb flow and 500 mb vorticity for 00Z May 17. Right away two things catch my eye, one being the 250 mb Jet has its let exit (cyclonic portion/divergent region) in line with where the 50 mb vorticity maximum sits. The second is the timing of which the trough rounds the Rockies in the mid-afternoon thus causing the column to spin up during prime heating. Furthermore the jet interactions from above may render a little more cyclonic energy and amplify the vorticity a little more. Below that is also the GFS 500 mb vorticity, I'm putting it here to show that the  timing of the main trough is pretty well handled thus some confidence can be put into the upper air Fx.

Next we move down a bit to 850 mb where there is a decent axis of strong flow from the south, this should help reach any convection (if any happens) to at least push severe limits anyway. What’s not ideal is that I would like to see them a little more backed given the moisture situation (see below), since it would help to advect a little more mid level moisture up from the Gulf.

At the sfc shows some more promise with the convergence setting up in the SW corner of KS along the CO border and into the OK panhandle as shown in both the sfc wind/T panel and the sfc Td and streamline panel. What is very disappointing is the moisture return and  we came out here at this time well aware of this risk but sadly with the time we have left we had to pull the trigger. With such weak parameters going to need a little luck but not all is lost since there still some positives to pull from this scenario.

Here we have CAPE and a sounding for the general target region. Looking at CAPE, things look ok from energetics point of view but the sounding looks horrible with no moisture except aloft. Thus with the slightly stronger dynamics pushing in looks like the possibility of some elevated storms is what the potential is for today as the dymical lift may be able to tap into the moisture aloft. The 4km WRF seems to think so as well.