Well today (May 17) proved to be a little better than we thought. I figured with everything so limited storms would struggle to fire up but things managed to initiate. Even though storms were super high based still made for some pictures and some lightning. The first cell we were on even exhibited sign of broad weak rotation for a brief period of time, and even produced a small gustnado. 

For May 18 things again look very marginal but the upper air support is a little better with a branch of the polar jet managing to nose its way into the eastern portions of CO and western KS. Although the main trough is still well to the west, some wobbles along the mean 500 mb flow will also provided some overall lift into the region.

Also promising is the low level flow at 850 mb will also help to add in some much needed shear but capping and moisture are going to be a little bit of an issue once again. What looks to be the dilemma is whether or not we favour the convergence more to the north near Ogallala, NE or the dryline bulge near Tribune, KS, which would put us in the same region as May 17. The NAM/WRF both break out preceip in the areas but the NE target doesn't really pickup until after 00Z and the KS target looks to initialize around the 21Z mark. Thus I'm favouring sitting near the Goodland, KS region which keeps both targets in play, but at the moment given the moisture return I may favour the southern target. I will have to wait and see what the high resolution models and what the sfc + upper air obs say in the morning to refine the target.