As our chase trip approaches, things are gradually starting look up. Although forecast models have been taking us on a roller coaster ride over the past few weeks, I am glad to see some consistency starting to break through between various model runs and between individual models. As it stands we are looking to depart on Monday May 13 to try and see what could come of a long shot setup but possibly some TX Panhandle magic into western OK. Although flow aloft is not ideal, CAP looks to be breakable and there may be a combination of some dryline forcing along with gradual upslope flow into the Panhandle. See images below. On top of that storm motion will likely be to the SW which was similar to the May 29, 2012 setup in western OK where gorilla hail was dropped in the Peidmont, OK region.  I’m not convinced something of significance will come of it, but with the limited time we have I think we will chance it. I will also note that the ECMWF is also on par with this setup with a minor risk, but again cannot post the graphics from Accuweather Pro site so you will have to take my word for it.

After that the May 17 through to May 21 could be an active period through the Central planes. May 17 and 18 looks a little on the fence as capping could be an issue but there will be some potential for some upslope storms in CO and maybe a bit of dryline action in the OK Panhandle on the 17 and some dryline action possible in west KS or maybe even NB on the 18. Again concerns being capping and the 500 mb chart below shows a pretty good ridge over the most of the region on both days. But moisture return will likely be sufficient and with westerly flow aloft divergence should be sufficient as well, although little weaker on May 18.

After this looks like what could be the better bit of action picks up on May 19 as the trough ejects just east of the 4 Corners region, as shown below on 500 mb chart. Sfc moisture return here will likely be decent with the deeper trough setting in and the sfc chart below shows dryline potential in northwest OK and southwest KS, and possibly some action in the vicinity of the warm front along the KS/NB border. After this the trough is relatively slow moving which would give way to another potential chase in central OK on May 20 and the ECMWF continues to dig the trough south giving another possible chase day in the TX/OK border region on May 21, but will play this by year. At this point I am just happy to see the models pick up on some good chase prospects.

That being said the May 19 setup is also reinforced by the ensembles, namely the GEFS and NAFES, as well as the ECMWF ensemble mean. The firs image shows the GEFS ensemble means, the trough is not as deep as the operational run and that is because some members do show some ridging in place, thus a little concerning still but like that at least the mean shows a trough pattern. The NAFES is a little more aggressive showing a slightly deeper trough but the tilt is a little on the positive side thus signaling questionable moisture return and capping issue. But at this point, as in my previous post, there is optimism here and hope that the latter part of May will become a little more active.