We got back on the road today heading southwest out of Eureka, MO heading to Norman, OK for this evening to get into good position for our chase on Wednesday. After a quick analysis of the NAM/GEM and 00Z GFS things are looking a little more interesting for tomorrow. Both the GEM/NAM look to have a secondary shortwave which looks to pivot around the back main bit of subtropical energy that is pushing into western TX/OK. You can see it pushing into the extreme southwest corner of OK. (will only post links to images to keep data usage low):

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=12&fhour=36&parameter=RELV&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

This bit of energy is looking to promote some cyclogenisis into the TX Panhandle region allowing for a dry line surge eastwards. The image below shows a weak dryline push to the southwest of the Childress, TX region. I know it isn’t very strong but the southeasterly surface winds and gradual upslope in combination with the large scale ascent from the upper low may just be enough to get things going. On top of that, there could be some outflow boundaries pushing back to the west from ongoing convection in eastern TX.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=12&fhour=36&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

In support of this we have great Sfc-500 mb bulk shear into the Childress area:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=12&fhour=36&parameter=SHRM&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

And 850 winds show a descent LLJ pushing northward with not incredibly high but sufficient moisture within the 850 inflow.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=12&fhour=36&parameter=DPTC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Storms will likely be moving relatively slow with a southwest storm motion. The weaker flow aloft may prevent some venting and thus HP storms or even updrafts being undercut by storm outflow is a cause for concern, but were here now and will give it a go. But needless to say looks like the Childress, TX may be a good tentative target, where the GFS/GEM look to want to fire off the dryline into west OK, will wait to see what 00Z data shows and progression of subtropical energy.

As for our day 2, based on the forecast, we can see sufficient flow from about the OK Panhandle up into northwestern KS and then even into northwestern NB. This does cause concern as the NB region looks to have the better flow aloft but at the same time looks unlikely that sufficient moisture will make it that far north. So for now will keep the CO/KS /OK border regions the prospect for D2 with a close eye on how NB will pan out...Might have to make a long haul.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=12&fhour=60&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false