We had a very hectic but good chase yesterday. We began our chase on the supercell that eventually pushed its way into Hays, KS. Before we followed into Hays we decided to break off from it since it looked pretty undercut and the RFD was very cold and knew it likely would not produce much. The cell to the south near Rozel/Larned, KS got going and looked rather good so we headed south. After hearing multiple reports of tornadoes and seeing the images we didn’t think we would make in time. But we got on our west road toward the meso and alas there it dropped a beautiful cone tornado that lasted for about 10-15 minutes with a smaller satellite tornado that briefly dropped to out east. It was a great chase today

Today is a really good setup once again. We have a secondary shortwave trough rounding the long wave through today which should push into the Texas Panhandle/southwestern KS today. This area to the immediate east will be the area of interest for this afternoon’s initiation:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=12&fhour=09&parameter=RELV&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Currently there is an outflow boundary with a NW to SE orientation sitting in northeastern OK this morning, but most mesoscale models have it mixed out through the afternoon due to the stronger southerly synoptic flow, but still something to keep on eye just in case it lingers. Essentially at the surface we have a cold front that will drop south through today in KS and intersect with the dryline just south of Wichita, KS. Winds out ahead of this region are southerly but I suspect that in response to the frontal intersect and the added vorticity from the 500 mb short wave mentioned above, there is likely a mesoscale low feature to develop here. That should provide better backed winds in the region and give a greater tornado risk. Not to mention the 3500-4000 j/kg of CAPE which is forecast to be uncapped by 21-00 UTC should help things along just fine. Thus a target of around Ponca City, OK will be ideal for today for initiation along the frontal intersects and keeps us in the vicinity off the outflow boundary. Below first link is to Sfc winds and moisture, second shows CAPE forecast.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=12&fhour=12&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=12&fhour=12&parameter=CAPE&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false