Been a little while but many late nights and early mornings have kept me from being able to update as often as I would like. Had a few slow days in terms of chasing with the exception of May 24. Not much promise was held for the day but was able to capture a wicked display of atmospheric vorticity (spin) within the bare bone updrafts near the Holyoke, CO region. Essentially the LP storm at first was showing the bare bone structure of what a supercell is made up of and was an awesome display of the complex dynamics involved within a supercell thunderstorm. Eventually the storm become the tornado warned storm that went through the Chase County NE region but night fall and low viz prevented us from being able to spot any tornadoes (although none were confirmed regardless) but was able to get one of the best lightning shows to date. Video and pictures found here:

http://www.severeweatherdiaries.com/photography/storm-chase-2013-chase-day-9-vortices-lightning-in-colorado/

http://www.severeweatherdiaries.com/stormchase2013/

Onto the forecast for the next two days; which appears to hold some promise one again. For today flow, although moderate at best, is beginning to return to the central planes. Below shows the 250 mb flow and we can see that there is a branch of the Polar jet begging to push its way into the eastern CO and western KS regions. Morning analysis shows that this jet streak is currently entering the 4 Corners region and the 12Z NAM has initilized this feature well. It is this jet streak that will be the focus of energy for todays setup.

At 500 mb we can observe a weak shortwave that is pushing into the eastern CO region which will be enhanced some by the 250 mb jet and will help with overall ascent within the northwestern section of KS and south central/western part of NE.

In response to these factors above we can see here that there is a developing low within the CO/NE/KS state intersections with a dryline pushing into the western KS region which also extends up into WY and through to southwestern KS. The primary focus here will be near the lows center where a triple point looks to setup on the KS/NE border just south of the McCook, NE region. To the east of this dryline of forecast to be a moisture latent airmass with rich Theta-e values and surface based CAPE forecast to reach near the 4000 J/kg values. Again capping will be somewhat of an issue but may help the cause by allowing only the better storms to remain discrete, organized, and not bee interfered with by weaker disorganized storms. The GFS for the most part in agreement with the NAM in terms of upper flow but synoptically at the surface the GFS is favouring a slight westward bias in the setup of the dryline/triple point. Thus   the target for now remains broad and would be between the I-80 (from North Platte, NE to Lexington, NE) and I-70 (from Colby, KS to Hays, KS) Corridors with a focus near the Norton, KS region whihc seems to be the most central point within the target region. There is also a possibilty of a blue sky bust today if the dryline is not strong enough lacking some convergence near the sfc.

For May 27 the western trough continues to dig with increasing flow over the planes from at the 250 and 500 mb levels. Of interest here is the jet nosing into the western planes and the region of enhanced 500 mb flow over the central KS region.

Again in response a surface low develops within the central KS region with triple point developing near or just west of the Great Bend, KS region. It is also encouraging to see that the GFS/NAM are in relatively good agreement here once again with the GFS having a light westward bias and north with triple just south of the Hays, KS region but not far off. Again deep moisture and even better Theta-e values have this day a little more promising but CAP will be a little stronger. With all factors combined I feel the CAP will break and again will help to allow only stronger storms to persist and thrive as there should be minimal “crapvection”. This will think that the Great Bend region is a good tentative target for now.