Currently sitting in Pratt, Kansas. Things look really promising, debating going north to follow the warm front where shear is better but Pratt is still great position for now

Currently en toute to Pratt, Kansas. Looks like all has fallen into place with what was mentioned in the discussion below, the only difference now is it appears as though the warm front may stall a little further south than what was forecasted. The NAM looks to push it the warm front way to the N but that doesn't seem to reality. Both the RUC and HRRR have the front staling between Wichita and Salina kansas, then surging northward to around Hays Kansas. Pratt falls right in the middle of the warm sector and should see some initiation in the region off the dry line. Low level shear, moisture, and CAPE will all be sufficient for supercells with large hail and possibility of tornadoes.

With the return of some better upper level flow at 250 mb with about a 70-90 kt jet and and 60-70 kt flow at 500 mb, storm potential should be increased as apposed to yesterday. Again it is still a little further to the west than ideal, but it much better than what May 18 had. The upper level low at 500 mb alos looks to eject a strong vorticity lobe out into west Kansas which should help things get organized also.

At the surface the low is looking to be sitting in the western portions of Kansas with the warm front sitting E - W just south of the I-70. In behind the front dew points look to be into the mid - high 60's. The dry line also looks to surge forward out of west Texas and the intersection of the warm front dry line should be the area of interest once again.

As the 850 low level jet begins to kick in at about 21Z in combination with sufficient dew points and forcing, the low level shear should be able to support supercells along the dry line. Surface based CAPE in the range of 2000 - 2500 J/kg is sufficient to provide the needed energy for thunderstorm development, with the CAP eroding by around 21Z. Soundings and hodogrpahs look to support this scenario and indicate that very large hail will also be a threat for tomorrow.

Sitting in Kingfisher, OK just south along the warm front waitting for the dry line to surge forward initiating thunderstorms.

After assessing the morning data and the latest NAM, looks as though things will be shifted slightly off to the northeast into the Kingfisher, Oklahoma region where the moisture and helicities look to be more optimal for storm production. Again the issue is the upper level support and the forcing does not look very strong.