Looking at the WRF/NAM/GFS the 250 mb will be sitting off to the northwest into the Oklahoma panhandle and southeast Colorado, not all hope is lost for west Oklahoma as the 500 mb jet manages to just nose its way into the western portions of Oklahoma. Hopefully this little bit of upper level flow will be our saving grace.

At the surface, a low looks to establish itself in the southeast portion of Colorado with a warm front draping down in through Oklahoma and south of Oklahoma city. Moisture looks to return with dew points forecast to get up into the mid to lower 60's (degrees F) and mixing will establish a dry line in the vicinity of Weatherford, OK. Although the upper level support is marginal, what little flow there is at 500 mb combined with the 850 mb low level jet of about 35-40 kt, 15-20 kt surface flow look to keep shear values in range for some supercell development along the dry line, hodographs around the Weatherford area also confirm this

CAPES in the vicinity of 2000 - 2500 J/kg look to provide enough energy to get storms going, but soundings indicate that there may be some issues with capping. All factors look to show a slight potential for some isolated storms to develop in the Weatherford, Oklahoma area between 21Z-00Z, but the lack of jet dynamics is concerning, and areas northwest of Weatherford, such as Woodward and possibly a little further NW are not out of the question either. This same system looks the continue into Kansas ans current model guidance looks to be pointing in the Dodge City, KS area where a triple point looks to be established with good upper level support, but more to come tomorrow.

We are now well into the US. We were able to make to Eurika, MO just southwest of St. Louis after about 16 hours. For a while I was banking on some storm potential this evening, which there is in SE CO and around the OK panhandle. The nose of the 250 mb Jet is nosing its way into that region whihc should help the upper divergence. But the flow at 500 mb is marginal and the LLJ at 850 is a little off the the E. Soundings indicate that most of the storms will be elivated, and CAPE's are marginal and is aligned in a very narrow swath.

Tomorrow is looking much better in and around the Lawton, OK region. The kicker here is the fact that the 250 and 500 mb Jet's sit way off to the W, but the streak just kissing into OK. At the surface the low sets up in south CO with a warm front trapping down to just S of Oklahoma City. Near Lawton is where moisture appears to greater with a strong warm front/dry line intersection. CAPES, EHI, and SRH values are maxed out in this vicinity and should make for a pretty descent environment for storms. Again the issue comes down to the upper level support. It appears as though we will be hanging around Norman, OK on Wednesday and will adjust position as we see fit.

Thursday looks like we will be heading up into Kansas where the surface low migrates to setting up waht appears to be a triple point in the vicinity of Greensburg :(. Upper level support returns to the area but a closed low developes at 500 mb which should not be a big problem but is not ideal. CAPE's look to creep up into the 2000 - 2500 J/kg whihc is sufficient...but again let's hope that the moiture will be there.

The same system that has been wreaking havoc on the southern Gulf states will trek its way into Ontario. A strong 500 mb and 700 mb deformation zone will certainly enhance the precip in the northern portions of the province hence the large amounts of precip in the forecast. Current models show the occlusion holding off a little longer than previously forecast allowing a little more warm air to reach SW Ontario. Current Theta-E trend for SW Ontario shows a chance of some embedded thundershowers along and south of a line from Niagara to Sarnia with Windsor and Sarnia showing the better chance. The lakes will choke off most of the surface based CAPE but current trends show about 250-500 J/kg of elevated CAPE. I know, I'm really trying to squeeze a lot out of a weak set up.

Clearly the best action will be in the MDT Risk in the Carolina states where great Jet dynamics and strong diffluence in the vicinity of the front will make for a great set up for severe storms. Dew points looking to be into the mid to upper 60's (Fahrenheit) and CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/KG should make for an active day once again. 

Hello everyone, I'm Brad Rousseau, I just completed my Honours B.Sc in Atmospheric Science and obtained my certificate in Meteorology. I have a passion for weather in all seasons but have a profound appreciation for severe convective weather and tornadoes. I have a fair amount of experience when it comes to forecasting by practising throughout my university career, and chasing in SW'rn Ontario. May 2010 was my first chase in the Alley with veterans Dave Lewison, Mark Robinson, and Scott McPartland, where I was able to successfully contribute in intercepting 5 tornadoes. This blog is will be dedicated mostly to my weather discussions for Ontario as well as for the Plains, but will also be used to discuss the 2011 chase trip down in the Alley.

That being said, here goes my first ever weather discussion. Thursday evening (April 14, 2011) shows a strong threat of tornadoes in through Oklahoma and Kansas. The progression of the upper level trough along with strong diffluence combined with left exit region of the 250mb jet will sit through east central, northeast Oklahoma and up in through east central Kansas. This will make for a interesting setup. As the surface low progresses NNE, it begins to occlude with a secondary low developing at around 00Z Friday, April 15. This area is where I anticipate the action to be in the vicinity of the triple point. As the parent low progresses NNE storms should fire in through S central Kansas but the environment is still pretty capped; the better conditions still remain in though NE Oklahoma. Although wind profiles appear to be better in through east Kansas the combination of low level shear, greater CAPE values, higher dew points, and a 35-40 kt 850 LLJ still, in my opinion, put Tulsa, Oklahoma in the region of interest. Environment should remain favourable for strong isolated cells to continue into the night in through Arkansas as well.